May 11

Michael Mann, inventor of the global warming Hockey Stick, to give free lecture in Oregon tonight

By Editor hockey stick, Michael Mann Comments Off on Michael Mann, inventor of the global warming Hockey Stick, to give free lecture in Oregon tonight

Here in Oregon (where we’re thick with Warmers) Michael Mann probably figures that he will be welcomed as a planet redeeming hero.  But, there is a healthy and growing group of skeptics here who are more likely to welcome the can’t-take-a-joke, you-can-have-my-Hockey-Stick-when-you-pry-it-from-my-cold-dead-fingers kind of guy Mann really is with some very inconvenient questions.

Victoria Taft has details:

I’ll bet he figured that in Oregon no one would question his doomsaying climactic predictions—except people who’d actually kept pace with CLIMATE GATE of which Mr Mann was a key participant.

Michael Mann, a climatologist and a leading figure in research on climate change, will speak on “Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming” Tuesday, May 11, at 7:30 p.m. in the Richard and Lucille Ice Auditorium in Melrose Hall.

The free lecture is sponsored by the Jane Claire Dirks Edmunds Fund.

Mann’s recent book “Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming” (2008) has been called a “straight-forward guide to how scientists, economists and engineers really understand the problem of global warming. The IPCC has been issuing the essential facts and figures on climate change for nearly two decades. But the hundreds of pages of scientific evidence quoted for accuracy by the media and scientists alike, remain inscrutable to the general public who may still question the validity of climate change.”

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Sep 28

Man-made global warming? No. Mann-made global warming? Yes.

By Editor hockey stick, Michael Mann, Steve McIntyre Comments Off on Man-made global warming? No. Mann-made global warming? Yes.

As Anthony Watts says, “Ding-dong, the stick is dead.”  Watts provides a “nut-shell” explanation of long and tortured history of the notorious global warming hockey stick, and it’s demise:

1- In 1998 a paper is published by Dr. Michael Mann. Then at the University of Virginia, now a Penn State climatologist, and co-authors Bradley and Hughes. The paper is named: Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations. The paper becomes known as MBH98.

The conclusion of tree ring reconstruction of climate for the past 1000 years is that we are now in the hottest period in modern history, ever.

See the graph http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/image/mann/manna_99.gif

Steve McIntyre, a Canadian mathematician in Toronto, suspects tree rings aren’t telling a valid story with that giant uptick at the right side of the graph, implicating the 20th century as the “hottest period in 1000 years”, which alarmists latch onto as proof of AGW. The graph is dubbed as the “Hockey Stick” and becomes famous worldwide. Al Gore uses it in his movie An Inconvenient Truth in the famous “elevator scene”.

2- Steve attempts to replicate Michael Mann’s tree ring work in the paper MBH98, but is stymied by lack of data archiving. He sends dozens of letters over the years trying to get access to data but access is denied. McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, of the University of Guelph publish a paper in 2004 criticizing the work. A new website is formed in 2004 called Real Climate, by the people who put together the tree ring data and they denounce the scientific criticism:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/false-claims-by-mcintyre-and-mckitrick-regarding-the-mann-et-al-1998reconstruction/

3- Years go by. McIntyre is still stymied trying to get access to the original source data so that he can replicate the Mann 1998 conclusion. In 2008 Mann publishes another paper in bolstering his tree ring claim due to all of the controversy surrounding it. A Mann co-author and source of tree ring data (Professor Keith Briffa of the Hadley UK Climate Research Unit) used one of the tree ring data series (Yamal in Russia) in a paper published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society in 2008, which has a strict data archiving policy. Thanks to that policy, Steve McIntyre fought and won access to that data just last week.

4- Having the Yamal data in complete form, McIntyre replicates it, and discovers that one of Mann’s co-authors, Briffa, had cherry picked 10 trees data sets out of a much larger set of trees sampled in Yamal.

5- When all of the tree ring data from Yamal is plotted, the famous hockey stick disappears. Not only does it disappear, but goes negative. The conclusion is inescapable. The tree ring data was hand picked to get the desired result.

These are the relevant graphs from McIntyre showing what the newly available data demonstrates.

http://www.climateaudit.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/rcs_chronologies1.gif

http://www.climateaudit.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/rcs_merged.gif

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Nov 26

Meet the new hockey stick; same as the old hockey stick

By Editor hockey stick, Michael Mann, Steve McIntyre Comments Off on Meet the new hockey stick; same as the old hockey stick
Of course, the headline is adapted from the lyrics of The Who’s “We Won’t Get Fooled Again”. And we won’t.

Climate Skeptic has the details:

Will there ever be a time when sane people are not having to deconstruct yet another repackaging of Mann’s hockey stick, like some endless whack-a-mole game? Mann is back with a new hockey stick and, blow me away with surprise, it looks a heck of a lot like the old hockey stick:

Willis Eschenbach, writing at Climate Audit…claims his methodology shows that two sets of proxies — the Tiljander sediments and the Southwestern US Pines (mainly the bristlecones) — drive the hockey stick shape. This is reminiscent of Steve McIntyre’s finding years ago that just a few proxies in the original MBH 1999 drove most of the hockey stick form. Interestingly, these two series are the very ones that have received the most independent criticism for their methodology and ability to act as a proxy. In particular, the Tiljander Lake sediment data is out and out corrupted, and it is incredible that they could get past a peer review process (just reinforcing my feeling that peer review passes shoddy work that reinforces the professions prejudices and stands in the way of quality work by mavericks challenging the consensus).

Anyway, with these proxies removed, less than a quarter of the total, the hockey stick disappears.

Climate Skeptic concludes:

If you still have any confidence at all in climate scientists, I urge you to read this discussion of the Tiljander sediments. Mann managed to make two enormous mistakes. One, he used a series that the authors of the series very specifically caution has been disturbed and is not a valid proxy for the last 200-300 years. And two, he inverts the whole series! instead of showing it decreasing in the last 200 years (again due to corruption the authors warned about) he shows it upside down, increasing in the last 200 years, which then helps him build his hockey stick on absolutely false data.

One might argue that this is just the indictment of one scientist, but everyone in the profession seems to rally around and defend this one scientist, and the flaws listed above have been public for a while and absolutely no one seems interested in demanding Mann correct his numbers. In fact, most climate scientists spend their time shooting the messenger (Steve McIntyre).

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Oct 10

Video of the dude that’s funded by Big Green who plays in the ice and helped make up Al Gore’s hockey stick

By Editor hockey stick, video Comments Off on Video of the dude that’s funded by Big Green who plays in the ice and helped make up Al Gore’s hockey stick


The dude that’s funded by Big Green who plays in the ice and helped make up Al Gore’s hockey stick looks a little nervous, don’t you think?

If you are confused by this post, and you are wondering, “what’s up with that?” The answer is at Watts Up With That?

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Sep 23

Al Gore is still plugging the "hockey stick" on his blog

By Editor Al Gore, hockey stick Comments Off on Al Gore is still plugging the "hockey stick" on his blog

Al Gore has a new post up at his blog. Nothing new. It’s just the same hockey stick mumbo-jumbo warmed over and served up to his climate campers once again. Never mind that it’s been fully discredited, and isn’t even mentioned much anymore by many AGW alarmists.

Gore:

Contrary to what the skeptics and deniers will tell you, the Hockey Stick graph, similar to the one I featured in “An Inconvenient Truth”, is proving to be completely true.

Basically the graph shows the temperatures remain consistent for 1,000 years, and then, when the industrial revolution took place, temperatures spiked. A number of research groups have produced records of temperatures of centuries before thermometers were in use using the growth patters of corals and trees, temperature changes in boreholes, ice cores and sediments.

Blah, blah, blah, blah

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Aug 12

The dismantling of the Hockey Stick: Caspar and the Jesus Paper

By Editor Amman and Wahl, Climate Audit, hockey stick, Jesus Paper, Michael Mann, Steve McIntyre Comments Off on The dismantling of the Hockey Stick: Caspar and the Jesus Paper

While we’re busy cracking jokes and ridiculing Al Gore, the big boy skeptics, like Steve McIntyre, are doing important work.

If you’re like me, you find McIntyre’s Climate Audit completely mystifying, yet you know that what is written there is relevant to the cause of we AGW skeptics.

I’ve often wished I could write a layman’s analysis of what goes on at Climate Audit, but now I don’t have to because Bishop Hill blog has done it for me – and it is a must read.

Bishop Hill:

There has been the most extraordinary series of postings at Climate Audit over the last week. As is usual at CA, there is a heavy mathematics burden for the casual reader, which, with a bit of research I think I can now just about follow. The story is a remarkable indictment of the corruption and cynicism that is rife among climate scientists, and I’m going to try to tell it in layman’s language so that the average blog reader can understand it. As far as I know it’s the first time the whole story has been set out in a single posting. It’s a long tale – and the longest posting I think I’ve ever written and piecing it together from the individual CA postings has been a long, hard but fascinating struggle. You may want to get a long drink before starting, and those who suffer from heart disorders may wish to take their beta blockers first.

At some time or another, most people will have seen the hockey stick – the iconic graph which purports to show that after centuries of stable temperatures, the second half of the twentieth century saw a sudden and unprecedented warming of the globe. This was caused, we were told, by mankind burning fossil fuels and releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. For a while, the hockey stick was everywhere – unimpeachable evidence that mankind was damaging the planet – an impact that would require drastic measures to reverse. The stick’s most famous outing however was just a couple of years ago when it made a headlining appearance in Al Gore’s drama-documentary, An Inconvenient Truth. The revelation of the long, thin graph with its dramatic temperature rise in the last few decades, and the audience gasps that accompanied it, is something of a key moment for many environmentalists.

Shortly after its publication, the hockey stick and its main author, Michael Mann, came under attack from Steve McIntyre, a retired statistician from Canada. In a series of scientific papers and later on his blog, Climate Audit, McIntyre took issue with the novel statistical procedures used by the hockey stick’s authors. He was able to demonstrate that the way they had extracted the temperature signal from the tree ring records was biased so as to choose hockey-stick shaped graphs in preference to other shapes, and criticised Mann for not publishing the cross validation R2, a statistical measure of how well the temperature reconstruction correlated with actual temperature records. He also showed that the appearance of the graph was due solely to the use of an estimate of historic temperatures based on tree rings from bristlecone pines, a species that was known to be problematic for this kind of reconstruction.

Read the entire post here.

Hat tip to Steve McIntyre himself.

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Jun 20

That almost looks like a……..HOCKEY STICK!

By Editor AIT Index, Dr. Roy Spencer, hockey stick, schadenfreude, Temp change since AIT released Comments Off on That almost looks like a……..HOCKEY STICK!

Click here for a larger view

Except that the “business end” of this hockey stick is pointing in the other direction than Gore’s was pointing. It’s going almost straight down, baby – and Viagra isn’t going to help.

The staff here at GL took the liberty of slightly altering Dr. Roy Spencer’s graph here of his UAH Globally Averaged Satellite-Based Temperature of the Lower Atmosphere (Jan. 1979-May 2008).

Dr. Spencer highlighted the Mt. Pinatubo cooling and the 1998 El Nino warming, and our graphics department added the release date of Al Gore’s science fiction movie. Much to our amusement, it shows that the temperature has dropped approximately .58 degrees Celsius (1.04 degrees Fahrenheit) since his movie’s release.

I feel some schadenfreude welling up inside of me.
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