Apr 20

Dr. Roy Spencer gives a preview of his new book, “The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World’s Top Climate Scientists“:

About one-half of Blunder is a non-technical description of our new peer reviewed and soon-to-be-published research which supports the opinion that a majority of Americans already hold: that warming in recent decades is mostly due to a natural cycle in the climate system — not to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning….

Believe it or not, this potential natural explanation for recent warming has never been seriously researched by climate scientists. The main reason they have ignored this possibility is that they cannot think of what might have caused it.

You see, climate researchers are rather myopic. They think that the only way for global-average temperatures to change is for the climate system to be forced ‘externally’…by a change in the output of the sun, or by a large volcanic eruption. These are events which occur external to the normal, internal operation of the climate system.

But what they have ignored is the potential for the climate system to cause its own climate change. Climate change is simply what the system does, owing to its complex, dynamic, chaotic internal behavior.

And what does Dr. Spencer think is the main climate change variable that is missing from the alarmists’ theories? Changes in cloud cover.

Dr. Spencer concludes:

The supposed explanation that global warming is due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide from our burning of fossil fuels turns out to be based upon little more than circumstantial evidence. It is partly a symptom of our rather primitive understanding of how the climate system works.And I predict that the proposed cure for global warming – reducing greenhouse gas emissions – will someday seem as outdated as using leeches to cure human illnesses.

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Feb 19

Six Videos: Dr. Roy Spencer discusses the science behind his anthropogenic global warming skepticism

By Editor Dr. Roy Spencer, video Comments Off on Six Videos: Dr. Roy Spencer discusses the science behind his anthropogenic global warming skepticism






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Jan 27

FALSIFYING INFORMATION is on Dr. Roy Spencer’s list of ten propaganda techniques used by Al Gore

By Editor Al Gore, Dr. Roy Spencer Comments Off on FALSIFYING INFORMATION is on Dr. Roy Spencer’s list of ten propaganda techniques used by Al Gore

Kudos to Dr. Roy Spencer for highlighting the Al Gore quote that is the sub-head of this blog. Dr. Spencer doesn’t number the list, but if he were “falsifying information” should be at the top.

Dr. Spencer:

Falsifying information:

The creation or deletion of information from public records, in the purpose of making a false record of an event or the actions of a person or organization. Pseudo-sciences are often used to falsify information.

“Nobody is interested in solutions if they don’t think there’s a problem. Given that starting point, I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous (global warming) is, as a predicate for opening up the audience to listen to what the solutions are, and how hopeful it is that we are going to solve this crisis.” (May 9, 2006 Grist interview)

The entire list:

  • Appeal to fear
  • Appeal to authority
  • Bandwagon
  • Flag-waving
  • Ad hominem attacks
  • Appeal to prejudice
  • Black-and-white fallacy
  • Euphoria
  • Falsifiying information
  • Stereotyping or Labeling or Name Calling

Read Dr. Spencer’s entire post here.

Hat tip: Marc Morano

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Jan 09

Dr. Roy Spencer: "As of this writing (January 9), it looks like the coldest temperatures in the Lower 48 are yet to come"

By Editor Dr. Roy Spencer Comments Off on Dr. Roy Spencer: "As of this writing (January 9), it looks like the coldest temperatures in the Lower 48 are yet to come"

An exerpt from Dr. Spencer’s latest post where he answers the question of how that Arctic air gets so cold:

As of this writing (January 9), it looks like the coldest temperatures in the Lower 48 are yet to come, as the coldest airmass over northwest Canada finds its way down into the central and eastern U.S. starting around next Wednesday (January 14) or so. Gee, where is global warming when you really need it?

The ’scientific consensus’ is that these frigid air masses are the ones that should warm the most with manmade global warming. The reasoning goes that since they contain very little water vapor (Earth’s main greenhouse gas), the warming effect of the extra carbon dioxide should be proportionately greater there.

But what causes these air masses to get so cold in the first place? Well, little or no sunlight is the most direct reason, which means they radiatively cool to outer space without any solar heating to offset that infrared cooling.

But what limits how cold they can get? Why do these temperatures seldom fall below -60 or -70 deg. F….temperatures reached fairly early in the winter, but which then level off? The answer is mostly related to the water vapor content of the air.


There is an interesting issue of causation involved with these cold and dry air masses. Contrary to what some meteorologists think, the air doesn’t become dry because of the cold. If that was the case, the air would become continuously saturated with clouds and fog as it keeps cooling, rather than clear and relatively dry as is observed.

No, rather than being dry because it is cold, the air instead becomes cold because it is dry. And the reason the air is so dry is because it has been slowly sinking from high in the atmosphere, where there is very little water vapor. And why is THAT air so dry? Because precipitation processes have removed the water vapor as relatively warmer and moister air ascends in low pressure areas — snowstorms — which move around the periphery of the high pressure zones that are created by the strong cooling.

So, ultimately, it is precipitation processes in regions remote from these cold high pressure areas that mostly determine how cold surface temperatures will get. And since we have little understanding of how these precipitation processes in the upper atmosphere might change with ‘global warming’, there is (in my mind) more uncertainty about water vapor feedbacks than the IPCC has led us to believe.

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Nov 19

Vincent Gray: The Absurdity of a Reliable Average Global Surface Temperature (and James Hansen Agrees)

By Editor Dr. Roy Spencer, James Hansen Comments Off on Vincent Gray: The Absurdity of a Reliable Average Global Surface Temperature (and James Hansen Agrees)

After giving an interesting history of the various temperature scales, Vincent Gray posted at Jennifer Marohasy’s blog:

There is nowhere on the earth, or in its atmosphere, where the energy content can be considered to be in equilibrium. In daytime there is usually a rise in energy, at night time, a fall. There are no circumstances where a definite temperature of any part can be defined thermodynamically.
You can, of course, put a measurement instrument close to one part and record the apparent transient temperature. If the measurement is continuous you might even derive some sort of average temperature at that point. But there is no way that one could carry out sufficient measurements, distributed in a representative way, so that any sort of global average temperature could be derived.

The climate scientists connected with the IPCC do, however, claim not only that they have measured average global temperature, but that this has been carried out with such accuracy that an increase of less than one degree Celsius over 100 years could be confidently related to increased emissions of greenhouse gases over the period, rather than to the errors of the measurement.

James Hansen, the pioneer scientist who is credited with having launched this belief in the influence of increasing greenhouse gases and continues to promote it, has admitted publicly, on his website that the measurements are completely unreliable.

What does this mean for the Warmer community and the AGW skeptic community? Probably not much. Everyone will go about their business, and keep measuring the temperatures as they see fit. If anything, this gives more validity to Dr. Roy Spencer’s method of measurement than James Hansen’s, and therefore GORE LIED will continue to use Dr. Spencer’s temperatures as the basis for the Al Gore / AIT Index.

Note: Dr. Vincent Gray has been an Expert Reviewer for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for eighteen years, that is to say, from the very beginning. He lives in Wellington, New Zealand.

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Nov 09

Dr. Roy Spencer: Two of his papers submitted to Geophysical Research Letters were both rejected due to "scientific censorship"

By Editor Dr. Roy Spencer Comments Off on Dr. Roy Spencer: Two of his papers submitted to Geophysical Research Letters were both rejected due to "scientific censorship"

Posted today at Dr. Roy Spencer’s website:

November 9, 2008:
The two papers we had submitted to Geophysical Research Letters have both been rejected, with instructions to not resubmit either one. The first paper showed how none of 18 IPCC climate models, in over 1,000 years of global warming simulations, ever exhibits the negative feedback we have measured from global satellite data.
The second paper revealed new satellite evidence that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the Earth’s radiative balance by an amount that, when put into a simple climate model, can explain 75% of global warming over the 20th Century….including the slight cooling between 1940 and 1980.
Since our previous publications have been basically censored by the news media, and I have now experienced scientific censorship (which I suppose was long overdue), I have decided to take my message to the people in a second book.
In anticipation of trouble getting these papers published, I had already started the book awhile back…it is now about 80% finished, heavily illustrated. The working title is: The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World’s Top Climate Scientists. My book agent is currently scouting for publishers.

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Oct 24

The Oregonian’s reporting today is evidence of Dr. Roy Spencer’s prediction that climate alarmism would "slowly fade away"

By Editor Al Gore, Dr. Roy Spencer, The Oregonian Comments Off on The Oregonian’s reporting today is evidence of Dr. Roy Spencer’s prediction that climate alarmism would "slowly fade away"

Last night Al Gore appeared here in Portland, Oregon to stump for Jeff Merkeley (D), who is running against the Republican incumbent, Sen. Gordon Smith, for the US Senate.

That’s right, the former vice president of the United States, the Nobel laureate, the Academy Award winning Prophet (er, Profit) of Doom, The Goracle was right here in Portland, Oregon.

Looking through The Oregonian this morning, which has a history of climate alarmism and could be expected to note a Gore appearance with trumpets blaring, I could not find one mention of Gore’s visit.

However, I did notice an article titled, “Snow, wind, rain, who knows what Oregon winter will bring?”

The Oregonian reports:

Last winter in Oregon was one for the record books.

It started in December with the worst coastal storm the region has seen in a dozen years, which brought 70-foot ocean waves, wind gusts in excess of 130 miles per hour and intense flooding that shut down Interstate 5 north of Portland for four days and U.S. 30 west of Clatskanie for nearly a week.

A month later, a tornado tore through Vancouver, damaging more than 100 houses, knocking down billboards and leaving a trail of tree limbs and downed power lines.

Then, before the season was over, unusually high snowfall shut down highways and buried towns underneath historic snowpacks. The cumulative snowfall at the Mt. Hood Meadows ski area from Nov. 1 through April 1 was 650 inches — the most ever recorded.

Behind much of the climate carnage was La Nina, the periodic cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean surface that tends to create colder and wetter winters for the Northwest.

The article tells of the conference scheduled for today at the Oregon Convention Center where several local meteorologists and other experts will make their weather predictions for the coming winter. Anyway, I’ll cut to the chase. All of the meteorologists featured by The Oregonian predicted that although the winter would not be as cold and harsh as the previous winter, temperatures would be normal to a little below normal, and precipitation fairly typical. As a result, there was none of the usual alarmist talk of climate change, global warming, CO2 emissions, or the complete and utter destruction that awaits us with the supposed looming climate crisis. No doubt that had the meteorologists predicted warmer than average temperatures, The Oregonian would have interpreted that information as a signal of impending climate doom.

The Oregonian quotes local skeptic hero George Taylor of Applied Climate Services and former state climatologist:

The good news, Taylor says, is the upcoming winter will not look much like last year’s. “Winter will come early and leave early this year,” he said.

He sees precipitation as being slightly higher than usual, with about normal snowpack, and close to average temperatures. The chance for low-elevation snow? About 50-50, he said. And “We may not see any at all.”


Nary a mention of Al Gore’s visit in The Oregonian? Nary a mention of climate alarmism in a news story about long-range weather forecasting in The Oregonian? Hmmm? Methinks that this might be an example of what skeptic hero Dr. Roy Spencer said at his Congressional testimony earlier this year:

“In conclusion, I am predicting today, that the theory that man-kind is mostly responsible for global warming will slowly fade away in the coming years, as will the warming itself. And I trust you would agree Madam Chair, that such a result deserves to be greeted with relief.”

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