Sep 28

Man-made global warming? No. Mann-made global warming? Yes.

By Editor hockey stick, Michael Mann, Steve McIntyre Comments Off on Man-made global warming? No. Mann-made global warming? Yes.

As Anthony Watts says, “Ding-dong, the stick is dead.”  Watts provides a “nut-shell” explanation of long and tortured history of the notorious global warming hockey stick, and it’s demise:

1- In 1998 a paper is published by Dr. Michael Mann. Then at the University of Virginia, now a Penn State climatologist, and co-authors Bradley and Hughes. The paper is named: Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations. The paper becomes known as MBH98.

The conclusion of tree ring reconstruction of climate for the past 1000 years is that we are now in the hottest period in modern history, ever.

See the graph http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/image/mann/manna_99.gif

Steve McIntyre, a Canadian mathematician in Toronto, suspects tree rings aren’t telling a valid story with that giant uptick at the right side of the graph, implicating the 20th century as the “hottest period in 1000 years”, which alarmists latch onto as proof of AGW. The graph is dubbed as the “Hockey Stick” and becomes famous worldwide. Al Gore uses it in his movie An Inconvenient Truth in the famous “elevator scene”.

2- Steve attempts to replicate Michael Mann’s tree ring work in the paper MBH98, but is stymied by lack of data archiving. He sends dozens of letters over the years trying to get access to data but access is denied. McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, of the University of Guelph publish a paper in 2004 criticizing the work. A new website is formed in 2004 called Real Climate, by the people who put together the tree ring data and they denounce the scientific criticism:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/false-claims-by-mcintyre-and-mckitrick-regarding-the-mann-et-al-1998reconstruction/

3- Years go by. McIntyre is still stymied trying to get access to the original source data so that he can replicate the Mann 1998 conclusion. In 2008 Mann publishes another paper in bolstering his tree ring claim due to all of the controversy surrounding it. A Mann co-author and source of tree ring data (Professor Keith Briffa of the Hadley UK Climate Research Unit) used one of the tree ring data series (Yamal in Russia) in a paper published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society in 2008, which has a strict data archiving policy. Thanks to that policy, Steve McIntyre fought and won access to that data just last week.

4- Having the Yamal data in complete form, McIntyre replicates it, and discovers that one of Mann’s co-authors, Briffa, had cherry picked 10 trees data sets out of a much larger set of trees sampled in Yamal.

5- When all of the tree ring data from Yamal is plotted, the famous hockey stick disappears. Not only does it disappear, but goes negative. The conclusion is inescapable. The tree ring data was hand picked to get the desired result.

These are the relevant graphs from McIntyre showing what the newly available data demonstrates.

http://www.climateaudit.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/rcs_chronologies1.gif

http://www.climateaudit.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/rcs_merged.gif

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Nov 26

Meet the new hockey stick; same as the old hockey stick

By Editor hockey stick, Michael Mann, Steve McIntyre Comments Off on Meet the new hockey stick; same as the old hockey stick
Of course, the headline is adapted from the lyrics of The Who’s “We Won’t Get Fooled Again”. And we won’t.

Climate Skeptic has the details:

Will there ever be a time when sane people are not having to deconstruct yet another repackaging of Mann’s hockey stick, like some endless whack-a-mole game? Mann is back with a new hockey stick and, blow me away with surprise, it looks a heck of a lot like the old hockey stick:

Willis Eschenbach, writing at Climate Audit…claims his methodology shows that two sets of proxies — the Tiljander sediments and the Southwestern US Pines (mainly the bristlecones) — drive the hockey stick shape. This is reminiscent of Steve McIntyre’s finding years ago that just a few proxies in the original MBH 1999 drove most of the hockey stick form. Interestingly, these two series are the very ones that have received the most independent criticism for their methodology and ability to act as a proxy. In particular, the Tiljander Lake sediment data is out and out corrupted, and it is incredible that they could get past a peer review process (just reinforcing my feeling that peer review passes shoddy work that reinforces the professions prejudices and stands in the way of quality work by mavericks challenging the consensus).

Anyway, with these proxies removed, less than a quarter of the total, the hockey stick disappears.

Climate Skeptic concludes:

If you still have any confidence at all in climate scientists, I urge you to read this discussion of the Tiljander sediments. Mann managed to make two enormous mistakes. One, he used a series that the authors of the series very specifically caution has been disturbed and is not a valid proxy for the last 200-300 years. And two, he inverts the whole series! instead of showing it decreasing in the last 200 years (again due to corruption the authors warned about) he shows it upside down, increasing in the last 200 years, which then helps him build his hockey stick on absolutely false data.

One might argue that this is just the indictment of one scientist, but everyone in the profession seems to rally around and defend this one scientist, and the flaws listed above have been public for a while and absolutely no one seems interested in demanding Mann correct his numbers. In fact, most climate scientists spend their time shooting the messenger (Steve McIntyre).

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Nov 12

Deja Vu All Over Again: Blogger Again Finds Error in NASA Climate Data

By Editor GISS, James Hansen, Steve McIntyre Comments Off on Deja Vu All Over Again: Blogger Again Finds Error in NASA Climate Data

Daily Tech’s Michael Asher has the details:

Amateur team finds NASA error similar to one they discovered a year ago.



NASA’S Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is one of the world’s primary sources for climate data. GISS issues regular updates on world temperatures based on their analysis of temperature readings from thousands of monitoring stations over the globe.



GISS’ most recent data release originally reported last October as being extraordinarily warm– a full 0.78C above normal. This would have made it the warmest October on record; a huge increase over the previous month’s data.

Those results set off alarm bells with Steve McIntyre and his gang of Baker Street irregulars at Climateaudit.org. They noted that NASA’s data didn’t agree at all with the satellite temperature record, which showed October to be very mild, continuing the same trend of slight cooling that has persisted since 1998. So they dug a little deeper.



McKintyre, the same man who found
errors last year in GISS’s US temperature record, quickly noted that most of the temperature increase was coming from Russia. A chart of world temperatures showed that in October, most of Russia, the largest nation on Earth, was not only registering hot, but literally off the scale. Yet anecdotal reports were suggesting that October was actually slightly colder than normal. Could there be another error in GISS’s data?



An alert reader on McKintyre’s blog revealed that there was a very large problem. Looking at the actual readings from individual stations in Russia showed a curious anomaly. The locations had all been assigned the exact temperatures from a month earlier– the much warmer month of September. Russia cools very rapidly in the fall months, so
recycling the data from the earlier month had led to a massive temperature increase.



Continue reading at Daily Tech.

Hat tip: Icecap

Some GORE LIED readers might wonder why we use Dr. Roy Spencer’s satellite-based UAH temperatures for GL’s Al Gore / AIT Index? Accuracy. Not only does GISS has a manipulative hack adjusting the data to create global warming, but Anthony Watts has proved that the surface station data isn’t up to the goverenments standards of measurement anyway.

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Aug 12

The dismantling of the Hockey Stick: Caspar and the Jesus Paper

By Editor Amman and Wahl, Climate Audit, hockey stick, Jesus Paper, Michael Mann, Steve McIntyre Comments Off on The dismantling of the Hockey Stick: Caspar and the Jesus Paper

While we’re busy cracking jokes and ridiculing Al Gore, the big boy skeptics, like Steve McIntyre, are doing important work.

If you’re like me, you find McIntyre’s Climate Audit completely mystifying, yet you know that what is written there is relevant to the cause of we AGW skeptics.

I’ve often wished I could write a layman’s analysis of what goes on at Climate Audit, but now I don’t have to because Bishop Hill blog has done it for me – and it is a must read.

Bishop Hill:

There has been the most extraordinary series of postings at Climate Audit over the last week. As is usual at CA, there is a heavy mathematics burden for the casual reader, which, with a bit of research I think I can now just about follow. The story is a remarkable indictment of the corruption and cynicism that is rife among climate scientists, and I’m going to try to tell it in layman’s language so that the average blog reader can understand it. As far as I know it’s the first time the whole story has been set out in a single posting. It’s a long tale – and the longest posting I think I’ve ever written and piecing it together from the individual CA postings has been a long, hard but fascinating struggle. You may want to get a long drink before starting, and those who suffer from heart disorders may wish to take their beta blockers first.

At some time or another, most people will have seen the hockey stick – the iconic graph which purports to show that after centuries of stable temperatures, the second half of the twentieth century saw a sudden and unprecedented warming of the globe. This was caused, we were told, by mankind burning fossil fuels and releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. For a while, the hockey stick was everywhere – unimpeachable evidence that mankind was damaging the planet – an impact that would require drastic measures to reverse. The stick’s most famous outing however was just a couple of years ago when it made a headlining appearance in Al Gore’s drama-documentary, An Inconvenient Truth. The revelation of the long, thin graph with its dramatic temperature rise in the last few decades, and the audience gasps that accompanied it, is something of a key moment for many environmentalists.

Shortly after its publication, the hockey stick and its main author, Michael Mann, came under attack from Steve McIntyre, a retired statistician from Canada. In a series of scientific papers and later on his blog, Climate Audit, McIntyre took issue with the novel statistical procedures used by the hockey stick’s authors. He was able to demonstrate that the way they had extracted the temperature signal from the tree ring records was biased so as to choose hockey-stick shaped graphs in preference to other shapes, and criticised Mann for not publishing the cross validation R2, a statistical measure of how well the temperature reconstruction correlated with actual temperature records. He also showed that the appearance of the graph was due solely to the use of an estimate of historic temperatures based on tree rings from bristlecone pines, a species that was known to be problematic for this kind of reconstruction.

Read the entire post here.

Hat tip to Steve McIntyre himself.

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Jun 23

Hansen: "We’re toast…."

By Editor Al Gore, James Hansen, Steve McIntyre Comments Off on Hansen: "We’re toast…."

Not only did NASA’s Dr. James Hansen say, “we’re toast”, but he also suggested that Big Oil execs should be put on trial for spreading “misinformation” about anthropogenic global warming.
DotEarth blog:

…there was a much discussed recommendation in both his oral presentation and a written statement he prepared beforehand: that the heads of oil and coal companies who knowingly delayed action on curbing greenhouse gas emissions were committing a crime. “These CEO’s, these captains of industry,” he said in the briefing, “in my opinion, if they don’t change their tactics they’re guilty of crimes against humanity and nature.”

This argument could easily be flipped on its head and used against Al Gore and Dr. James Hansen. Hansen is worried about Big Oil’s “tactics”. Well, what about Big Green’s “tactics”. Afterall, the alarmists funding via Big Green far surpasses the funding that skeptics receive from Big Oil. Messrs. Gore and Hansen are guilty of screaming “fire” in a crowed theater. They are guilty of conspiracy to commit fraud on the entire “planet”.

Weather Channel founder John Coleman has recently suggested a lawsuit against Gore, and earlier this month some Spanish real estate developers sued Greenpeace for their scare-mongering that has hurt their real estate investments.

So, the pendulum is beginning to swing in the other direction – despite Hansen’s testimony. He’s in a dream world, and it appears that Steve McIntyre is cracking Hansen’s code – again. IBD.com calls Hansen a “desperate man“. Hansen is a dead-ender. He’s all in with a crappy hand, and is relying on his bluffing skills. He’s going down with all his guns blazing – kinda like the end of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid.

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