May 26

Here’s climatologist Philip Mote’s full quote offer to wager as reported by The Oregonian:

“I’m willing to bet large sums of money that we will have a bottom in this cool period,” he said, “and we’ll see the long-term trend again.”

The quote was contained in a March 20, 2008 article written by Michael Milstein for The Oregonian titled, “You call this global warming ? Uh, yeah”, which The Oregonian published amidst a particularly cold winter of 2007/2008 to reassure the local global warming alarmists that the world was still going to end at the hands of man-made global warming.

An excerpt:

This winter has been the coldest in the northern Oregon Cascades since 1993. Snow is piling up on Mount Hood. The past two winters in the Willamette Valley have been the coolest in more than a decade.

Globally, it was the coldest winter since 2001, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Sea ice even made a bit of a comeback after a dramatic melt-off last summer.

So is global warming a thing of the past?

Maybe for the time being, scientists say, but probably not over the longer term. One or even two years isn’t nearly enough time to indicate a climate trend, researchers say.

In the short window of a few months, routine shifts in weather such as the one the Northwest is experiencing now –driven by a well-known climate cycle known as La Nina –easily overwhelm whatever trends might be gripping the globe over years or decades.

The cool resurgence is fueling arguments by global warming skeptics that natural forces, not human factors such as greenhouse gases, dominate the climate.

But Northwest climate scientists say it’s a matter of short-term versus long-term perspective. The cool winter doesn’t mean there’s no warming trend, they say. Any trend remains subtle and is simply hidden for the time being.

“As you move to smaller and smaller time scales, it gets harder and harder to see the effect of rising temperatures,” said Philip Mote, a climate scientist at the University of Washington who was lead author of a recent international report on global climate change. “If La Nina goes away and the long-term temperatures are still below average, I’ll eat my hat.”

Mote, Washington’s state climatologist, said the past three months do seem unusually cool, within the perspective of the past 10 years.

Mote said that this winter does not change projections by his University of Washington research group that temperatures will inexorably rise, over the long term, by 0.2 to 1 degree Fahrenheit per decade.

“I’m willing to bet large sums of money that we will have a bottom in this cool period,” he said, “and we’ll see the long-term trend again.”

For the record, Mote is now the director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, and become a professor in the College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University – which is to say that he replaced man-made global warming skeptic George Taylor, who held the equivalent position until he was forced out by the Green Governor Ted Kulongoski.

There’s no evidence that anyone ever took Mote up on his offer to wager, and fourteen months later we still don’t “have a bottom in this cool period”.

GORE LIED note: No link is available to the March 20, 2008 article from The Oregonian, as the entire article has disappeared from the internet, but still exists on The Oregonian’s archives that I have access to via my local library.  However, the first portion of the article was excerpted on this Oregonian blog, with no link to the entire article.

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2 Responses to “Climatologist Philip Mote in March, 2008: “I’m willing to bet large sums of money that we will have a bottom in this cool period””

  1. Lemon says:

    His hat is probably really, really big.
    So the alarmists deny that the oceans have an effect on climate AND the sun has no effect on climate AND there is no effect on validity of temp results when the thermometer is next to an AC exhaust. I’m not a climate scientist but when the sun is out I’m warm and when it’s not I’m cool.


  2. Jay Alt says:

    So now Oregon has an atmospheric scientist doing the job, instead of a weatherman. What a loss. not.


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