Mar 30

Climate models?  Nah.  In this case it’s models predicting when Japanese earthquake debris starts washing up on the West Coast of the US, which only serves as further evidence that nearly all computer models cannot be relied upon.

NOAA originally predicted debris from the tsunami triggered by the 9.0 earthquake in Tohoku, Japan, in March of 2011 would begin washing up on shores in the Pacific Northwest in 2013. Those were rough estimates based on forecasted ocean conditions and reports of debris from fishing and commercial vessels.

But, The Oregonian now reports:

Perhaps the largest piece of debris resulting from last year's tsunami in Japan is this fishing boat. It was sighted March 20, drifiting 150 miles off the coast of British Columbia. Photo via Canadian Department of National Defence

Debris from the March 2011 Japanese tsunami will likely wash ashore sooner than originally thought.That’s a prediction the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says was confirmed by the sighting of a Japanese fishing vessel lost in the tsunami and spotted last week in Canadian waters off the Queen Charlotte Islands.

Faced with the facts, NOAA responds:

“We’re working on updating the model,” said Dianna Parker, NOAA spokeswoman. “We expect results will show some of the debris that rides a little higher will arrive ahead of schedule. The bulkier debris, sitting lower in the water, will take longer.”

Whether it be global warming climate models, or earthquake debris models, or a fill-in-the-blank model, it’s garbage in, garbage out.

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One Response to “As their model fails, NOAA says: “We’re working on updating the model””

  1. Hal says:

    Just like the model they used to predict where the black box from the Air France crash ( June 1, 2009) would be. The classic spiral search outwards from the wreckage was not used:
    “May 2011: After three failed searches and expenditures nearing $30 million, both so-called black boxes are now in hand…..
    A team of oceanographers found the wreckage of the Airbus A330-200 last month, on a sandy plain about two and a half miles under the ocean’s surface and just about six miles laterally from the plane’s last known location. The three previous searches covered a vast section of seabed to the northwest, based on computer models of currents and wind direction. This search, by contrast, focused on a much smaller area to the north.”

    Hal

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