Climate models? Nah. In this case it’s models predicting when Japanese earthquake debris starts washing up on the West Coast of the US, which only serves as further evidence that nearly all computer models cannot be relied upon.
NOAA originally predicted debris from the tsunami triggered by the 9.0 earthquake in Tohoku, Japan, in March of 2011 would begin washing up on shores in the Pacific Northwest in 2013. Those were rough estimates based on forecasted ocean conditions and reports of debris from fishing and commercial vessels.
Debris from the March 2011 Japanese tsunami will likely wash ashore sooner than originally thought.That’s a prediction the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says was confirmed by the sighting of a Japanese fishing vessel lost in the tsunami and spotted last week in Canadian waters off the Queen Charlotte Islands.
Faced with the facts, NOAA responds:
“We’re working on updating the model,” said Dianna Parker, NOAA spokeswoman. “We expect results will show some of the debris that rides a little higher will arrive ahead of schedule. The bulkier debris, sitting lower in the water, will take longer.”
Whether it be global warming climate models, or earthquake debris models, or a fill-in-the-blank model, it’s garbage in, garbage out.
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