Apr 10

The April 10, 2012 dead-tree edition of The Oregonian lead with a big dose of global warming realism.

This is what I was greeted with when I trotted out to fetch my dead-tree edition of The Oregonian this morning:  “Global warming without warming” – above the fold!  I’d seen the on-line version of this story last night with its own headline – “Global warming ‘hiatus’ in recent years helps spur skepticism” – but to see it lead the dead-tree edition was even more satisfying.

To his credit, reporter Scott Learn points out some facts that Joe Romm would characterize as “long-debunked denier talking points”.  And yet, The Oregonian is nobody’s idea of a global warming denier :

For people who want more action on global warming, an inconvenient truth has arisen over the last decade: Annual average temperatures stayed relatively flat globally — and dropped in the United States and Oregon — despite mankind’s growing release of greenhouse gases.

The hiatus in temperature increases may be contributing to higher public skepticism about warming, particularly in the United States.

Computer climate models didn’t predict the hiatus, notes Portland meteorologist Chuck Wiese….

Climatologists, and climate models, are overestimating the impact of greenhouse gases on warming relative to natural climate cycles, they say, and aren’t being held accountable when warming projections don’t pan out.

“They just keep moving the goalposts to where you can never get a satisfactory answer,” Wiese says.

Kudos to The Oregonian for having the guts to report the truth, rather than just regurgitating the blathering coming from “the consensus”.

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Jan 24

That’s the logical conclusion, right?

I mean, if a stray bird from warmer parts of the northern hemisphere is found much farther north in traditionally cooler climes, and it is blamed on global warming

A bird of prey spotted flying over Larne Lough has been confirmed as the first sighting of the rare Montagu’s harrier in Northern Ireland.

And the birdwatcher who caught sight of the harrier believes climate change may have played a part in bringing it to more northerly climes.

The birds may be starting to appear further north because of climate change, he said.

“As the temperature goes up, they are getting pushed further and further north. There are things happening – it’s definitely global warming that is pushing them further north,” he said.

 

…then the inverse must be true too, right?

An example:

SEATTLE (AP) — A ribbon seal commonly found in the frigid waters off the coasts of Alaska and Russia has been spotted twice in the Seattle area.

It’s quite unusual to observe the animals this far south, said Peter Boveng, leader of the polar ecosystem program with the National Marine Mammal Laboratory, part of the Alaska Fisheries Science Center in Seattle. “There are not many people who see these regularly.”

The ribbon seal, likely a young adult male, appears to be in good shape, though not as fat as expected, said Boveng.

The seal first showed up one morning earlier this month on the dock of a Seattle woman, who lives about a mile up the Duwamish River south of downtown.

Then last Friday, it was spotted on a snow-covered dock in Marysville, about 35 miles north of Seattle. A snow and ice storm had hit the state, leaving snow piled high in many parts of the region.

Ribbon seals inhabit the northern North Pacific Ocean and sub-Arctic and Arctic seas. They are found in the Bering and Chukchi seas off Alaska and the Sea of Okhotsk off Russia. They have distinctive white bands or ribbons that encircle the head, base of the trunk and two front flippers over a dark coat.

Since it is commonplace among the media to blame  any finding of species farther north than they normally would be (or south in the Southern Hemisphere) on global warming, is there any speculation by the media that this ribbon seal swam 1500 miles south to escape global cooling?  None.

To be sure, I’m not suggesting that this ribbon seal swam to Seattle to escape global cooling.  In fact, I have no idea why that ribbon seal showed up in Seattle, or why a Montagu’s harrier would show up in Northern Ireland, but I suspect it has less to do with global warming/cooling, and more to do with their freedom, i.e. animals with no citizenship, no borders, and even more importantly no sense of their own range habitat as pronounced by some wildlife biologist in a text book.  They can go where ever their bodies are capable of carrying them to – scientists’  habitat range maps be damned.

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Mar 20

A guest post by John O’Sullivan

Recently, I’ve been reading up on “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” a highly-regarded history of popular folly by Scottish journalist Charles Mackay, first published in 1841. His work can teach us a timely lesson in the current global warming controversy.

MacKay warns us of the pitfalls of group think using many notable historical examples when people,

“fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.”

The wise Scot goes on to cite many notable examples but one case struck me as I remembered it from my school days from the not so merry England of the 18th century. A total of 462 members of the House of Commons and 112 Peers signed up to the South Sea Company that persuaded vast swathes of the general public to also get sucked into one of the greatest financial scandals in history, the “South Sea Bubble“.

Even King George I and two of his mistresses, the Countess of Darlington and the Duchess of Kendal,got taken in and lost a fortune while countless citizens went bankrupt in the ill-founded venture. Thus we see how the “great and the good” can unwittingly lead us all into disaster.

Now welcome to the transmogrified world of our modern “bubble” where the “great and the good” have again apparently been undone by a group-think calamity over climate change in which our perceptions have starkly changed almost overnight. From being fearful of so called man made warming it seems the real danger is from cooling. It turns out that since January 2007, the world has cooled so rapidly that ALL the global warming over the past three decades has disappeared!

The cold facts are confirmed by a plot of actual global average temperatures from the best available source, weather satellite data that shows there has been NO net global warming since the satellites were first launched in 1979. Thus the argument that carbon dioxide emitted by western society that was thought to warm the atmosphere is doing no such thing. See larger image here.

Today’s bubble burst when the Climategate revelations exposed a government-funded clique of scientists as utter polemicists, sophists and necromancers. Leaked emails  from this scandal show scientists puzzled by highly-compelling temperature data proving the world is more likely to now be cooling rather than warming contrary to scientific expectations. Rather than make this finding public it was hushed up – until now. We are thus confronted by confusion in a backdrop of the worst economic recession for 60 years and where tax a weary public have grown thoroughly sick of being nagged by nanny governments to cut our carbon footprint.

The facts expose the pointlessness of expending any more hot air over what an increasing number of commentators are calling a non-problem since Britain’s most eminent government climate scientist, Professor Phil Jones admitted the planet has seen no statistically significant warming for over 15 years! Just as in the days of King George I, we see the hubris of “experts” and politicians leaving behind them a profligate money trail exposing their gullibility to the dangers and the myth of consensus- it was all just a climate chimera.

Independent analysis of real world data are now urging us to re-think once more the threat of cooling as we are in the midst of a cooling period to match the one we saw from 1940-75, as reported in Readers’ Digest (March 1977) “What’s Happening To Our Climate?” and when scientists in Newsweek, April 28 1975 (p 64) warned us of “The Cooling World“.

But far more weight should be given to the CIA report that proved government concern over global cooling in the 1970’s and the impact on world politics.

Amongst the host of references is Hubert Lamb – the first Director of CRU- Lamb writes in his many books of the climatic downturns which started sometime around 1960. So this brings us back neatly to the words of Charles Mackay and the example of the “South Sea Bubble” scandal that taught us:

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”

Let there be no doubt, the next new paradigm may well be that the warming blip from 1975-1995 that global warmists get so hot about may be seen to be an anomaly in the global cooling that can be said to have affected the planet since the Medieval Warm Period ended in the 1300’s.

This is a most credible hypothesis being that we are due to return to an ice age anyway.

But the biggest paradigm shift now taking place is the abandonment of the hypothesis that CO2 was a significant driver of planetary warming. The facts prove that  the Earth’s temperature record shows global cooling from ~1940 to ~1979 and this coupled with recent sharp cooling proves that overall, there has been no net warming since ~1940, in spite of an ~800% increase in human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). Thus the correlation between temperature rises and CO2 is bust so that the recent warming trend was probably entirely natural. Therefore, the CO2 bubble has now popped!

John O’Sullivan is a legal advocate and writer who for several years has litigated in government corruption and conspiracy cases in both the US and Britain. Visit his website. He offers his commentary for free and is not funded by any third party. Any opinions he expresses are his own and do not necessarily represent those of the site owner.

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Sep 01

The Farmer’s Almanac predicts:

LEWISTON, Maine – Americans, you might want to check on their sweaters and shovels — the Farmers’ Almanac is predicting a cold winter for many of you.

The venerable almanac’s 2010 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, says numbing cold will predominate in the country’s midsection, from the Rocky Mountains in the West to the Appalachians in the East.

For most of Minnesota and Wisconsin, the almanac predicts “bitterly cold and dry” weather. In the Dakotas and the Red River Valley region of Minnesota, “very cold and snowy” weather is expected.

Managing Editor Sandi Duncan says it’s going to be an “ice cold sandwich.”

“We feel the middle part of the country’s really going to be cold — very, very cold, very, very frigid, with a lot of snow,” she said. “On the East and West coasts, it’s going to be a little milder. Not to say it’s going to be a mild short winter, but it’ll be milder compared to the middle of the country.”

Hat tip: Climate Depot

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Aug 15

Statistician Dr. Richard Mackey, who authored a 2007 peer-reviewed study which found that the solar system regulates the earth’s climate, writes in a guest essay at Climate Depot:

Astronomers Dr. William Livingston and Dr. Matthew Penn and a large number of solar physicists would say that now the likelihood of the Earth being seized by Maunder Minimum is now greater than the Earth being seized by a period of global warming.

Their central finding is that regardless of the relation to the sunspot cycles, magnetic intensity in sunspots is decreasing and if this continues in the same way as it has for the last 15 years, the Sun will be devoid of sunspots in five years time: overall the Sun’s energetic output will decline significantly inducing another little ice age on the Earth.

They would answer Sir John’s question by saying: “Yes, the Maunder Minimum will arrive in time to save the planet from the utterly foolish global carbon tax.”

I’m obviously not a man-made global warming alarmist, but I’m also not a global cooling alarmist. If I could choose one or the other I’m not sure what I’d pick. Let’s take a look at the options:

1. Man-made global warming is real, Dr Livingston and Dr. Penn are wrong, and there the predicted global cooling doesn’t pan out:

In this scenario, the weather would get gradually warmer, crop yields would increase, and there would be likely be more positive effects of a warming planet than negative. But, the effects of cap and trade and other “solutions” would result in loss of individual liberties, and destruction of the world’s economy.

2. Man-made global warming is wrong, and a new Maunder Minimum brings the dawn of a new Little Ice Age:

In this scenario, the cooling planet would convince the population that Al Gore is just plain nuts, putting the kibosh on the global warming alarmists “solutions”. The result would be retention of our individual liberties and economic freedom that would create more wealth for all. But, a new Little Ice Age would be disastrous for food production, and would likely lead to widespread hunger, and perhaps starvation. Also, skyrocketing heating costs would also devastate the economy.

So, both choices are clear losers. But, we don’t have a choice in the matter anyway. It’s que sera, sera.

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Jun 19

John Casey, at The Space and Science Research Center says:

Today, for the first time in over two years, the Director of the Space and Science Research Center in Orlando, Florida, has issued a new prediction of the next climate change intended to emphasize the imminent ill-effects of this new climate period in an important warning to the American people and their leadership in Washington.

According to Center Director John Casey, “The climate change predictions which I started to pass out to our government and media in early 2007 based upon the ‘RC Theory’ have now come to pass, exactly as forecast. Global warming has ended, conclusively, as predicted. The Earth’s average temperature has begun its steep decline within the time frame I said it would. And last but not least, the Sun has entered a state of ‘hibernation’ when I said it would. This new solar period is one of the most amazing events in the history of science. During solar hibernations, the Sun makes significant reductions in output which always, always, brings long cold climates to the Earth. Unbelievably, this historic phenomena is still largely and intentionally unreported by the media and our leaders and therefore unknown by the American people. The new cold climate will usher in global travail that will be amplified specifically because of the catastrophic climate change policies of the administration of President Barack Obama that will leave most citizens unprepared.”

As to when the ill-effects of the new cold climate will be felt, Director Casey added, “The most frequent question I am asked is how soon will it get cold and just how cold? The purpose of this press release is to give the people an answer to that fundamental question in a more refined schedule to plan their adaptation to the next climate change. It is now possible to make an estimate of the timing of the descent into the next cold climate depths based upon the past behavior of the these solar cycles that have ruled the Earth for at least the last 1,200 years. The forecast of these major cold eras and solar hibernations associated with these cycles shows them to be accurate to over 90% using the RC Theory. The good news is that the SSRC will do what ever it can to get this information out even though our own government will not.”

Hat tip: Climate Depot

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Jun 18

From The Wall Street Journal:

Essayist Jamais Cascio certainly deserves credit for creativity and chutzpah in putting forward global geoengineering proposals to cool the planet. Bypassing any further debate regarding the effects of man-made pollution versus normal (and uncontrollable) planetary cycles, Mr. Cascio proposes a stratospheric sulfate injection and pumping seawater into clouds as ways to the slow the Earth’s warming. His planetary-cooling recommendations sound feasible, although he concedes that they may have very undesirable and unknowable side effects.

The most amusing aspect is captured in one of his own questions about climate manipulation: “Would all ‘odd’ weather patterns be ascribed to the geoengineering effort?” It’s amusing in that all of today’s odd weather patterns are ascribed to global warming. The Northeast U.S., which has seen very little sunshine and has experienced abnormally cold temperatures in recent months, is a case in point. The explanation is that global warming causes climate chaos that may produce colder and wetter than normal conditions. As one who prefers warm, sunny weather, I admit that I was a global-warming fan, until it sank in that warming was causing cooling.

Paul Schroer
Bridgeville, Del.

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